In the second half of the year, special bonds are ready to be issued, and construction machinery is expected to get out of the trough

The construction machinery market performed poorly in July. According to the statistics of relevant industry institutions, the sales of heavy trucks and excavators decreased by 48% and 3% respectively year-on-year. Industry insiders generally believe that with the intensive issuance of special bonds and the successive implementation of infrastructure, real estate and other projects, the industry will get out of the trough in the second half of the year.

Heavy trucks fell 48% year-on-year in July

The sales volume of heavy truck market in July can be described as "tragic".

According to the preliminary data of the first commercial vehicle network, in July this year, China's heavy truck market is expected to sell about 72000 models (billing caliber), a month on month decrease of 54%, a year-on-year decrease of 48%, and the sales volume decreased by nearly 70000 compared with the same period last year.

Compared with the rapid growth from January to April, great changes have taken place in the heavy truck market in the last three months.

From January to April 2021, the sales volume of heavy trucks continuously refreshed the sales historical record of that month; Since May, the situation has taken a sharp turn for the worse, and the market has experienced a year-on-year decline of less than 10% for two consecutive months; In July, the decline of heavy truck sales expanded. The sales volume in July was not as good as that in the same period of 2020 (139000 vehicles), or even as good as that in the same period of 2017 (90000 vehicles), 2018 (75000 vehicles) and 2019 (75000 vehicles).

Due to the sharp decline of nearly 50% in sales in July, the cumulative growth rate of sales from January to July also narrowed significantly. According to the estimate of the first commercial vehicle network, from January to July this year, the cumulative sales volume of China's heavy truck market was about 1117000, a year-on-year increase of 17%, which is still rising temporarily, but it is 11 percentage points narrower than the 28% increase from January to June.

It is expected to get out of the trough in the fourth quarter

CITIC Securities believes that the third quarter is a normal off-season for the heavy truck industry.

First, since heavy truck users usually purchase heavy trucks after the Spring Festival, the industry demand is more concentrated in the first and second quarters.

Second, due to seasonal factors such as rain and high temperature, the demand for heavy trucks in infrastructure and logistics industries will be affected to some extent.

Third, on July 1 this year, the national six standard for diesel heavy trucks was officially implemented, and the average unit price of heavy trucks may increase by 20000 to 30000 yuan. Some truck users are worried about the poor fuel consumption and reliability of national six vehicles, so they chose to rush to install heavy trucks before July 1, overdrawing the sales volume of the industry in the third quarter to a certain extent. Seasonal factors are superimposed on the national six year switch, and the industry sales may face great pressure in the third quarter.

CITIC Securities believes that the overall inventory level of the industry is still in a relatively healthy position, and there is little pressure to digest inventory. As the short-term disturbance factors caused by the national six-year switch subside, the sales volume of the industry in the fourth quarter is expected to return to a more normal level.

Zhongtai Securities said that although the sales volume of heavy truck manufacturers is low in the short term due to factors such as production rhythm and advance demand allocation, the national macro-economy is stabilizing. With the implementation of the national six year policy, the heavy truck market is still expected to maintain a steady development trend, resulting in an increase in the demand of the post-processing industrial chain.

The decline of excavators began to narrow in July

As the wind vane and economic barometer of the construction machinery industry, the sales volume of excavators has shown signs of coming out of the trough.

CME's grassroots survey shows that in July 2021, the sales volume of excavators (including exports) was about 18500 units, a year-on-year decrease of about 3%, and the decline narrowed. By market: the estimated sales volume in the domestic market is 13000 units, with a growth rate of about - 20.01%; The estimated sales volume in the export market is 5500 units, with a growth rate of about 92.51%.

Sany Heavy industry stakeholders said that from the perspective of industry demand trend, July is expected to be better than May and June, and the year-on-year decline will be narrowed. For example, projects in Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang and other regions that had not started before July have been started one after another. On the other hand, some special government bonds have not been issued before, and the funds are slowly in place.

Dongguan Securities believes that special bonds may be ready to be issued in the second half of the year, which is expected to support the stable growth of construction machinery and equipment.

According